Friday 21 December 2018

STRATEGIES IN THE FIGHT AGAINST BOKO HARAM

Above photo shows L-R: Patrick Okigbo (Founder/Principal Partner, Nextier & Moderator of the Parley) & Dr. Dayo Oluyemi-Kusa (Independent Consultant/Conflict Transformation Expert, Abuja)

The Boko Haram (BH) insurgency has remained a hard nut to crack in Nigeria for about ten years. Various strategies and approaches have been adopted in the fight against BH. In-spite of the fact that according to the Federal Government BH has been 'technically defeated', there have been recent fatal attacks on both military personnel and indeed the civilian population. The height of BH attack on the military was in Metele in November 2018, where some sections of the media claimed over 100 soldiers were killed but the army said only 36 died. Whatever the figure, this is one death too many. See for example, my Blog Post - Metele: Nigeria's counter-terrorism strategy re-visited   https://dayokusa.blogspot.com/2018/11/nigerias-counter-terrorism-strategy.html

On the 17th of December, 2018, Nextier (in collaboration with Yar'Adua Centre), held another in the Security Policy Dialogue series titled Breaking the stalemate: Strategies & approaches in the fight against BH insurgency in North-East Nigeria. Tijani Tumsah, Vice President of Presidential Committee on North-East Initiatives (PCNI) gave the keynote address where he spoke about what the Federal Government had done in these areas: use of force, sustained pressure and change of tactics. On the part of BH, they have engaged in the following: guerrilla tactics, ambush, surprise attacks on both the military and civilian targets. The concentration of these attacks is in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe. Meanwhile, at least 2 million Nigerians have been displaced and thousands have become refugees beyond our shores. Civilians are increasingly insecure.

According to Tumsah, infrastructure has been put in place for intelligence gathering and cooperation. Meanwhile, there is a blueprint for rebuilding lives and re-constructing the north-east, otherwise known as the Buhari Plan. There is approximately $9b of damage in the six north-east states. PCNI is to coordinate all the intervention effort in the north-east. There are a number of 'bundles', including the 'Borno package' for the rehabilitation of the north-east. Peace-building is going on pari pasu via interfaith dialogue; development of agriculture; disarmament, demobilisation, rehabilitation & construction (DDRR) and  mediation/conciliation tactics.

The moderator of the event, Patrick Okigbo, reminded us that the objectives of the dialogue were:

*Feasible and pragmatic solution for engendering peace in the north-east.
*Collaboration between policy makers, academics and practitioners.
*Improvement of the capacity of participants to address processes that could lead to peace in the north-east.

Dr. Ibrahim Umara, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Maiduguri, said BH is not politically engrained. He interrogated Nigeria's approaches to the north-east crisis. There is daily 'Koranic competition' where the competitors are lured with N500 per day! There is also the social problem of corruption which many believe is the root cause of the youth bulge and indeed unemployment. The state government's ambivalence on the use of crash helmets is a source of conflict. There could even be state-sponsored terrorism according to Umara. There is also open criticism of the state government in centres called markets. With the evolution of the Civilian JTF, BH has been routed out of the town. The Emir of Gwaza was assassinated - another source of conflict. Weapons provided for the soldiers are not backed up by ammunition! There could be international complicity in the BH issue. Umara said the attack in Metele was from the air. The harvest of many farmers has been set ablaze by BH. The armed forces seem to be slow in intercepting intelligence.

Brigadier-General Saleh Bala (Rtd), President, White Ink Institute and Lt. Col. Ademola Lawal (Rtd), Head of Research & Strategy, SCDDD outlined Nigeria's approaches to winning the peace in the north-east. Christianity and Islam could be described as types of insurgency. The Nigerian military talks too much about its operations and tactics. It is enough to talk about strategy in general terms. Strategic communication ensures that BH is tackled on the both the kinetic and soft platforms. A clear distinction was made between insurgency and terrorism. The military fights terrorism, not insurgency. Insurgency is the war of hearts and minds, where civil liberty and social cohesion are disrupted. Terrorists engage in shooting spree.

Some of the measures suggested to be taken to fight insurgency/terrorism are:

*Recharge the Lake Chad region, while 'rolling up' the aquatic and agrarian life of the seven countries.
*Military strategy should be pursued in tandem with economic strategy (like a marshal plan).
*Special forces should be deployed for intelligence gathering.
*Civilian JTF is a time bomb. They need to be gainfully occupied when not fighting BH.
*Para-military personnel (e.g. forestry guards, etc) should be deployed to ungoverned spaces for communiy-based security.
*There should be different levels of security, culminating in the military.
*The National Security Architecture (NSA) should be re-structured in line with current realities.
*This is a ideological/asymmetric war which cannot be easily wished away.
*The strategic objective of the military can be achieved through security sector reform (SSR).
*There should be 'inclusive security'.
*There is an intellectual lacuna in the conceptualisation of strategies for combating BH which needs to be filled.
*There should be a single strategy which encompasses all the mini strategies.
*Think tanks are vital for constant review of the insurgency/terrorism situation.
*There should be bio-metric capture for all IDPs in the north-east.
*In the Recovery & Statutory programmes, funds should be tied to particular projects in the states to curb corruption.

In Prof. Haruna Dakwa's (Director, Centre for Peace, Diplomacy & Development Studies, University of Maiduguri) submission, he 'navigated the tide of desolate communities in north-east Nigeria' and came to the conclusion that some communities are more resilient than others. According to Dakwa, the consequences of BH are: disintegration of communities, there are social/political and economic consequences of such disintegration, many Chiefs have been technically de-robed and some Chiefs have been indicted in the BH crisis.

In my intervention, I asked why there was no female on the panel in a vital discourse about strategies for combating BH. Is there no competent woman from the north-east to talk about DDRR, etc through a gender lens? This omission is even more disturbing in view of the fact that women bear the brunt of any war! It is women that become heads of households by proxy in situations where their husbands and sons are killed by BH. Their vulnerable children could also be killed! I also mentioned the fact that there is no need to re-invent the wheel. I was a facilitator at the Lake Chad Basin Governors' Forum (LCBGF) conference earlier this year in Maiduguri. Some of the recommendations and indeed the work of LCBGF should be monitored for possible inclusion in the next steps for the Nextier Security Dialogue Series. My third suggestion was that Nextier could be the veritable forum for galvanising the desired collaboration between Academics, Practitioners and Policy Makers.

It is undeniable that there was robust discussion at this very important meeting on the state of insecurity in the north-east ahead of the 2019 elections. See for example From BH to Biafra: How insecurity will affect Nigeria's elections   https://africanarguments.org/2018/12/18/boko-biafra-nigeria-insecurity-2019-election/

Related Links

*Women in terror: Ending Gender Based Violence (GBV) in Borno state, north-east Nigeria   https://kujenga-amani.ssrc.org/2018/12/13/women-in-terror-ending-gender-based-violence-in-borno-state-northeast-nigeria/
*Gender lens essential to addressing linked climate change & security   https://t.co/j8XcLV5DN?amp=1
*Nigeria: Exit of the Security Chiefs & time for a new approach by Jibrin Ibrahim     premiumtimesng.com
*Practical tools for addressing the risk of weapon diversion     stimson.org
*External desk evaluation of the DCA Humanitarian Land Mine Action & Cluster Mutation Activities, 2016-2020     tanacopenhagen.com
*VE & Community Policing in Tanzania     usip.org
*Nigeria; Unhappy soldiers     nextierspd.com
*Nigeria's audacious bandits     mailchi.mp/f6c6bd85c492/t
*Nigeria: Between criminals & self-defense groups     nextierspd.com
*Agonies of communities at the war front: Brutalised, exploited & traumatised   https://lnkd.in/d8K8vPj
*Making Community Policing work   nextierspd.com/making-community-policing-work
*Breaking terrorism supply chains in West Africa   https://issafrica.org/iss-today/breaking-terrorism-supply-chain-in-west-africa/
*BH attacks Borno Governor's convoy   premiumtimesng.com/news/boko-haram-attacks-borno-governors-convoy/
*Nigerian Army confirms killing of notorious criminal, 'Gana' (Terwase Akwaza) who surrendered   https://www.you.tube.com/watch?v
*The workings of extremism    africasacountry.com
*Characteristics & logic of civilian possession of SALWs in Mali   copese.org/book/characteristics-logic-of-civilian-possession-of-salas-in-mali/
*Insecurity: Man delivering ransom to kidnappers shot dead   premiumtimes.com
*Insecurity: 1,165 killed, 113 abducted in North-West Nigeria in 8 months   https://t.co/5oYcxgeltA?amp=1   premiumtimesng.com
*Is insecurity undermining the CoV response? Evidence from Nigeria   https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/08/insecurity-undermining-cov-response-evidence-from-nigeria/
*After many counter-terrorism operations, Africa is no closer to containing VE   ow.ly/Xboe50Cb2h1
*6 Nigerians convicted in the UAE for funding BH   dailytrust.com/6-nigerians-convicted-in-uae-for-funding-bh/
*Emir links insecurity to homosexuality in Northern Nigeria   guardian.ng
*Shekau, Abu Mus'ab & 29 others make Nigerian Army's list of wanted terrorists   https://t.co/wHAR9zvIWv?amp=1
*Understanding the role of Power, Identity, Communication & Trust in preventing and CVE in Somalia   https;//gga.org/understanding-role-of-power-identity-communication--trust-in-cve/
*Military approach alone cannot end insurgency   Gov. Zulum    thenationonlineng.net 
*Routledge Handbook of Terrorism & Counter-terrorism   https://www.rotledge.com/routledge-handbook-of-terrorism-and-counter-terrorism/silke/p/book/9780367580520
*Routledge Handbook of Deradicalisation & Disengagement   https://www.routledge.com/routledge-handbook-of-deradicalisation-and-disengagement/hansen-lid/p/book/9781138229969
*Mass terror trials test Nigeria's criminal justice system   issafrica.org/iss-today/mass-terror-trials-test-nigerias-criminal-justice-system/
*Pros & cons of resettlement of IDPs in Nigeria   nextierspd.com/the-pros-and-cons-of-resettlement-idps-in-nigeria/
*Addressing Jihadist ambushes   https://nextierspd.com/addressing-jihadist-ambushes/
*Solving displacement dilemma   nextierspd.com/solving-displacement-dilemma
*Adaptive Peace Operations: Navigating the complexity of influencing societal change without causing harm   https://lnkd.in/dxJFUPz
*Provisions on Security Sector Reform (SSR) & Disarmament, Demobilisation & Rehabilitation (DDR) in Peace Agreements   https://www.dcaf.ch/provisions.ssr-ddr-peace-agreements/
*Preparing for the global counter-terrorism forum for the next decade   https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/08/preparing-for-global-counter-terrorism-forum-for-next-decade/
*Mali's 2020 coup: How did we get here?   https://bit.ly/2YICBOE      
*Porous borders, porous security: Re-thinking ECOWAS free movement protocol   nextierspd.com/porous-borders-porous-security-rethinking-ecowas-free-movement-protocol/
*Nigeria: Accepting ex-BH fighters   nextierspd.com/accepting-ex-boko-haram-fighters/
*Besieged but not relenting: Ensuring fair trials for Nigeria's terrorism suspects   https://issafrica.org/research/west-africa-report/besieged-but-not-relenting-ensuring-fair-trials-for-nigerias-terrorism-suspects/
*Leveraging on local responses:Nigeria's near-quagmire with security challenges may not lead to state failure  nextierspd.com/leveraging-on-local-responses/
*Defending the US Military presence in Africa for reasons beyond terrorism   https://www.csis.org/analysis/defending-us-military-presence-africa-reasons-beyond-terrorism   https://.csis.org/analysis/defending-us-military-presence-africa-reasons-beyond-terrorism/
*Why the US Military presence in Africa is vital beyond counter-terrorism   https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/05/why-us-military-presence-africa-vital-beyond-counter-terrorism/
*Revamping the Nigeria Police   nextierspd.com/revamping-the-nigeria-police/
*Nigeria: Communal clashes and avoidable losses   nextierspd.com/communal-clashes-avoidable-losses/
*Nigeria's three axes of mass murder   nextierspd.com/nigerias-three-axes-of-mass-murdeer/
*Nigeria's defense investment   thenigerian.wixsite.com/blog/post/nigeria-defense-investment/
*Overcoming BH by Kate Meagher & Abdu Raufu Mustapha   https://t.co/d1UF39Hz3L...
*North-west Nigeria: The unofficial thetre of violence   nextierspd.com/archives/fbclid.../
*Who shall overcome? Islamic extremism in northern Nigeria - Kate Maegher   https://opinion.premiunmtimesng.com/2020/01/31/who-shall-overcome-islamic-extremism-northern-nigeria/
*Nigeria: Katsina community protests repeated attacks by bandits, block highway   premiumtimesng.com/regional/northwest/393194-katsina-community-protests-attacks-by-bandits-block-highway/
*Children & War   https://international-review.icrc.org/reviews/irrc-no911-children-and-war/
*Violence in Nigeria's north-west: Rolling back the mayhem   crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria-288-violence-nigerias-north-west-rolling-back-mayhem/
*Understanding the dangerous journey from BH to rehabilitation   https://issafrica.org/iss-today/understanding-the-gangerous-journey-from-boko-haram-to-rehabilitation/
*More than 20,000 Nigerians have fled to Niger Republic to escape murders, kidnappings & the pillaging of north-west villages - UN   https://bbc.in/3bscWHC
*Has counter-terrorism become a profitable business in Nigeria?   https://issafrica.org/iss-today/has-counter-terrorism-become-profitable-business-in-nigeria
*How elite Nigerian soldiers massacred un-armed religious marchers   https://www.youtube.com/attribution_link...
*Why BH should be placed on watchlist - CNN   https://ireporteronline.com.ng/
*Female BH members need tailor-made rehabilitation: Abduction, Rape, Marriage, Detention are women's main paths in BH   http://ow.ly/S75dOy5xwg
*Lake Chad Basin Governors' Forum  #LCBGF   https://dayokusa.blogspot.com/2018/05/lake-chad-basin-governors-forum-lcbgf.html
*Support for communities, families & young people to better protect children at risk of being (re-) recruited by armed groups and criminal gangs   https://ow.ly/bWHc50ykddo  #ChildrenNotSoldiers  #RedHandDay
*Sahel storm: The developing conflict trend is a Sahelian call to action/
*MNJTF counts successes in the Lake Chad region   https://leadership.ng/2018/04/30/mnjtf-counts-successes-in-lakechad-region
*Withdarwal of troops by Niger threatens MNJTF  www.aitonline.tv/post-withrawal_of_troops_by_niger_threatens_multinational-joint
*Re-thinking the functionality of the MNJTF    https://www.codesria.org/.../5-ad_42_3_2017_albert_rethinking_the_fuctionality
*Metele attack: NAF bombs terrorist location   https://www.vaguardngr.com/2018/11/metele-attack-air-force-bombs--terrorists-location/
*Response to terrorism must include psychosocial support   http://ow.ly/spBM5OxTFUJ
*Metele attack: Surviving soldiers send SOS to Buhari   https://www.vanguardngr.com/.../metele-attack-surviving-soldiers-send-sos-to-buhari
*Ezekwesili calls for re-assessment of Nigeria's anti-terrorism strategy   https://www.channels.tv.com
*Legal framework for the prevention opf terrorism in Nigeria   https://www.researchgate.net/.../277021838_legal_framework_for_the_prevention...
*Strengthening capacity to counter terrorism in Nigeria   https://www.unodc.org/nigeria/.../strengthening-capacity-to-counter-terrorism-in-nigeria
*The ECOWAS counter-terrorism strategy   https://www.liste.org/journals/index.php/IAGS/article/viewfile/15489/15897
*Counter-terrorism & the implications of in-fighting within BH   https://prnigeria.com/2018/10/08/counter-terrorism-infighting-boko-haram
*Nigerian Military set to release 155 ex-BH fighters into society   https://wp.me/p2LdGt-1fmw
*Nigeria Army threatens legal action over videos of BH attacks   dailypost.ng/2018/11/25/nigeria-army-threatens-legal-action-videos-boko-haram-attacks
*The women rescued from BH who are returning to their captors   https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-women-rescued-from-boko-haram-who-are-returning-to-their-captors...
*A Whole-of-Society Approach to preventing & countering violent extremism & radicalisation that lead to terrorism: A Guidebook from Central Asia   https://www.osce.org/secretariat/444340
*UK vows to help Nigeria fight against BH   https://allafrica.com/view/group/.../id/00067627.html
*Re-positioning the AU's role in CVE   https://lnkdin/eZ5beUC  #counterterrorism  #AU
*Conflict transformation, human rights & the rule of law in West Africa   https://issafrica.org/research/west-africa-report/counter-terrorism-human-rights-and-the-rule-of-law-in-west-africa
*Analysis: Islamic state returnees - India's counter-radicalisation vs de-radicalisation approach   mantraya.org/analysis-islamic-state-returnees-indias-counter-radicalisation-vs-deradicalisation-approach/
*Surviving BH: Why children under 5 matter   https://issafrica.org/research/policy-brief/surviving-boko-haram-why-children-under-five-matter
*BH: The amnesty dilemma   https://nextierspd.com/download/boko-haram-amnesty-dilemma/
*Terrorism & organised crime: Risks & shared responses   http://ow.ly/RiiZ30pgY5t   UNSCR 2482 urges member states to respond to what appears to be an 'ill-defined threat.'
*BH: A decade of terror explained   https://lnkd.in/gC7pSbi
*6 abducted aid workers appear in BH video, beg to be freed   https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/342825-six-abducted-aid-workers-appear-in-boko-haram-video-beg-to-be-freed.html   https://lnkd.in/gvHPERq
*BH now lures people with charity - Caregiver narrates   https://lnkd.in/gUG_F2s
*Security risk analysis: Kidnapping hotbeds in Nigeria   donokereke.blogspot.com/2019/04/security-risk-analysis-kodnapping.html
*Nigeria: Report blames BH insurgency, NE conflicts on poor governance   nttps://lnkd.in/gyHBTBj
*West Africa must confront its foreign terrorist fighters   https://issafrica.org/iss-today/west-africa-must-confront-its-foreign-terrorist-fighters
*How to map violence without Police data   issafrica.org/research/southern-africa-report/how-to-map-violence-without-police-data
*Preventing violent extremism (VE): The Morocco example   https://dgap.org/en/think-tank/publications/.../socio-economic-development-and-violent-extremism
*Insecurity: Police order helicopter surveillance across Nigeria   https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/3459508-insecurity-police-order-helicopter-surveillance-across-nigeria.html 
*African states can't rely on external funders to foot the bill for preventing violent extremism (VE)   http://ow.ly/9YVa50wwhBl
*The fight against Jihadists is shifting to Africa   https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/fight-against-jihadists-shifting-africa
*As terrorists settle into the Sahel, West Africa prepares for battle   https://worldview-stratfor.com/article/terrorists-settle-sahel-west-africa-prepares-battle
*Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE) isn't a job for civil society alone   https://issafrica.org/iss-today/preventing-violent-extremism-isnt-a-job-for-civil-society-alone
*Conflict sensitivity in approaches to PVE: Good intentions are not enough   www.pvetoolkit.org/media/1216/conflict-sensitivity-in-approaches-to-pve.pdf
*Stalemate: BH's new strategy means fewer attacks   sbmintel.com/2019/10/stalemate-boko-harams-new-strategy-means-fewer-attacks/
*Is BH copying the IS?   https://www.mnnonline.org/news/is-boko-haram-copying-the-islamic-state/
*Insecurity and violence turn Nigeria into a 'pressure cooker' that must be addressed, says UN Human Rights expert   https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/09/1045472
*BH: A decade of terror explained   https://www.bbc.com/mews/av/world-africa-49154953/boko-haram-a-decade-of-terror-explained
*BH now lures people with charity: Caregiver narrates experience   www.osundefender.com/boko-haram-now-lures-people-with-charity-caregiver-narrates-experience/
*Security risk analysis: Kidnapping hotbeds in Nigeria   donokeke.blogspot.com/2019/04/security-risk-analysis-kidnapping,html
*Nigeria: Report blames insurgency, north-east crisis on poor governance   https://allafrica.com/stories/201810080007.html
*Can we ever actually prevent terrorism? - Dr. Anneli Botha   https://muslimsinafrica.wordpress.com/2018/08/09/can-we-actually-prevent-terrorism/
*Nigeria's battle with BH   https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/nigerias-battle-boko-haram
*How is Africa dealing with young extremists?   issafrica.org/iss-today/how-is-africa-dealing-with-young-extremists/
*Cameroun: Vigilance Committees' dilemma in the fight against BH   issafrica.org/iss-today/vigilance-committees-dilemma-in-the-fight-against-boko-haram/
*Beyond bombs & bullets   nextierspd.com/beyond-bombs-and-bullets/
*Overlapping threats: Russian security cooperation & the Salafi-Jihadi threat in Africa   https://t.co/daMUYm1GjV
*7 dimensions of the African security landscape   https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/7-trends-shaping-the-african-security-landscape/
*Good NGOs, Bad NGOs: Nigeian government's partnership with NGOs in counter-terrorism operations   democracyinafrica.org/good-ngos-bad-ngos-nigeria-government-partnership-ngos-counter-terrorism-operations/
*Re-positioning the AU's role in countering terrorism   http://ow.ly/faL050xCYKz
*Drone strikes a growing threat to African civilians   issafrica.org/iss-today/drone-strikes-a-growing-threat-to-african-civilians
*Is the African Standby Force any closer to being deployed?   issafrica.org/iss-today/is-the-african-standby-force-any-closer-to-being-deployed/
*Amotekun: Constitutional implication of South-West regional security initiative   https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/371853-amotekun-constitutional-implication-of-south-west-security-initiative/
*Trauma Counselling enables the integration of former terrorists   https://issafrica.org/iss-today/trauma-counselling-enables-integration-former-terrorists/
*2020: Imperative or early action   https://nextierspd.com/download/2020-imperative-for-early-action/
*Amotekun: The South-West's response to insecurity in Nigeria   nextierspd.com/the-southwest-response.../
*BH: Looking beyond the bombs   https://nextierspd.com/looking-beyond-the-bombs/
*Insecurity lingers despite N3tr Defense budget   https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/insecurity-lingers-despite-n3tr-defense-budget.html
*Chadian President leads soldiers to capture BH 'arms store' in Sambisa   https://www.thecable.ng/photos-chadian-president-leads-soldiers-capture-boko-haram.../
*Chadianforces re-capture Nigerian town, Dikwa   https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/boko-haram-chadian-forces-recapture-dikwa/
*Some parts of Africa could be violent and unsafe for decades to come   economist.com/special-report/2020/03/26/parts-of-africa-could-remain-violent-unstable.../
*Chad gives Nigeria deadline of April 2020 to occupy territories seized from BH   orsu24news.com/chad-gives-nigeria-april-22-deadline-to-occupy-terrotories.../
*Insurgency & the Chad ultimatum   https://thisdaylive.com/index.php/2020/04/17/insurgency-and-the-chad-ultimatum/
*Assessing the effectiveness of the UN-AU Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID)    https://effectivepeaceoperations.net/publications/unamid/
*1st November 2020: US Special Forces storm Nigeria, kill six kidnappers, free abducted American   thenationonlineng.net
*MNJTF played significant role in rescuing American hostage    guardian.com   https://t.co/NKynkYuCva?amp=1





 



     

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