The Voter Preference Survey (VPS), was launched by INVICTUS Africa on the 4th of August 2026 in Abuja. This event was novel. I have attended editions of the yearly 'Womanity Index' Reports by INVICTUS, which lay bare credible statistics as regards the status, well being, perception and sundry indices specifically relating to the Nigerian woman. But this launch...was different. It was about voter preference as regards three distinct under-represented demographics: Women, Persons With Disability (PWDs) and the Youth. I was assured that the Womanity Index Report would come up later this year. I must at the outset commend the doggedness of the ED of INVICTUS, Buky Sonibare and her team for this exceptional Report that gives us startling revelations backed by facts and figures rather than mere speculation...
Three publications were launched. 'A national survey of voter attitudes, post voting behaviour & future voting intentions ahead of Nigeria's 2027 elections'.... 1) Would you vote for a Woman? 2) Would you vote for a PWD? 3) Would you vote for a Youth?
What did INVICTUS find out about the willingness to vote for women?
*Information Sources: Only 1 in 4 voters (26.7%) rely exclusively exclusively on digital & social media for political information. The implication of this is that traditional media (radio, TV, newspapers, Political Parties, Religious institutions, Influential individuals, etc. are also relevant)
*Past Voting Behaviour: Only 3 in 10 voters (30.9%) have ever voted for a woman candidate in any election since 1999.
*Voter Influence: 4 in 10 (42%) voters acknowledge being influenced by someone.
*Why Voters Supported Women: Nearly half (48.4%) of past supporters were driven purely by candidate-centred factors, such as track record.
*Voter Openness: More than 6 in 10 (64.4%) voters say they will vote for a woman in 2027.
*Who is most likely to commit: Female voters lead commitment @ 70.3% vs 59.1% for male voters. This is important because for me, it shows that women are always ready to support women unlike the negative narrative that they don't!
*Where Openness Has Limits: Nearly 3 in 10 (28.2%) confirmed 2027 voters have not yet committed to a female candidate.
*What it takes to win their vote: More than half of the voters (55.1%) would support a female candidate on merit alone, not just because she's a woman.
The Report then went on to analyse what the numbers mean. The research method was very thorough. We need to note that the VPS was self-funded! INVICTUS needs sponsors to undertake the post-election survey to validate or debunk some of findings pre-election. The intention of voters may not necessarily translate to the desired results during and post-election.
According to INVICTUS, 12,444 individuals responded to the survey questionnaire across Nigeria's 36 states and the FCT. Following systematic data cleaning and quality assurance screening, 1,248 records were excluded because they did not satisfy specified quality control criteria. This yielded a final analytical sample of 11,196 respondents. Over 100 enumerators were sent to the field!
To get a clearer picture from the three reports, they can be accessed on line and hard copies can be sourced via INVICTUS Africa. I have given snipets of only one of these reports in this short Blog post, but I can assure you that that the two other reports are also illuminating. Kudos once more to Bukky Shonibare and her incredible team. They are doing an incredible job even while self-sponsored. Please support INVICTUS Africa so that they can do even more...I look forward to the post election VPS...
